🔗 Share this article Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Figures The average number of everyday homicides each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government data. Nevertheless, security experts have warned that homicide figures may not point to improved national security. Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers There was an average of almost 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This information was provided by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The figures in killings that we have seen during these past months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade. Historical Context and Government Strategy Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency. That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper reduction in homicides this year. At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include: Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force. Enhancing information gathering and investigation work. Increased cooperation between various departments. Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that relying on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing. “This would be very good news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.” As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%. “Data on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas added that using monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it may hide periods when there were particularly high numbers of killings. “Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said. Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas. Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months. Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence. “The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.
The average number of everyday homicides each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government data. Nevertheless, security experts have warned that homicide figures may not point to improved national security. Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers There was an average of almost 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This information was provided by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The figures in killings that we have seen during these past months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade. Historical Context and Government Strategy Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency. That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper reduction in homicides this year. At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include: Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force. Enhancing information gathering and investigation work. Increased cooperation between various departments. Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that relying on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing. “This would be very good news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.” As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%. “Data on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas added that using monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it may hide periods when there were particularly high numbers of killings. “Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said. Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas. Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months. Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence. “The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.