Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
